More muddle, less leadership

(What we're arguing about: An F-35C launched by EMALS at NAS Lakehurst, NJ - Look Mum, no Steam!)

It seems that the UK MoD's trials and tribulations with the 2012 Planning Round (PR12) which have been referred to here before, are now so serious that it can't be announced before the Easter recess. In other words, the MoD is tacitly accepting that it won't be able to start the 2012-13 financial year with a plan that is costed and deliverable.

Well done.

To the cynics out there who could point out that this is hardly anything new, you have a point. Indeed, it is so consistent with previous MoD fiascos that one could be forgiven for thinking that Liam Fox - he of the "broadly in balance" budget fiasco was still in charge.

Fortunately he isn't. But "Spreadsheet Phil" Hammond needs to get the budget balanced without undermining the UK's semblance of a strategy. And for as long as this involves the carrier programme, the correct answer is F-35C, EMALS and traps - a cheaper, less complex aircraft that takes twice the bombload half as far again, or half again as many bombs twice the range of the F-35B jumpjet.

If we're serious about Carrier Enabled Power Projection (CEPP), then the F-35C is the correct way forward. Find the money and move on.

(And if you're having difficulty with the money, you could always cancel Trident.)

Formula 1 as predictive revolutionary yardstick

(Sakhir Circuit, Bahrain. A really, really, dull modern F1 track.)

Don't laugh. When you hear that Bernie Ecclestone is thinking of cancelling a Grand Prix, then you know it's got to be serious - this last happened.... when? And so in Bahrain we face another bit of history in the making - or for the reality tv addicts "History - Live, Innit?!" Or perhaps "Arab Authoritarians Lack Talent"?

It's easy to see why Egypt matters - it's been a cultural, economic and political fulcrum for much of the the last 6,000 years, and it remains the most populous Arab nation, and the home of the one of the most influential Islamic centres of learning in Al Azhar. Indeed, arguably the period in which it has mattered least regionally was from the signing of Camp David Accords in 1978 to Gulf War I 1990-91 when it was persona non grata with the rest of the Arab world due to recognising and agreeing a peace treaty with Israel.

(Oil and oppressed Shias. Lots of both in and around Al Jubayl, Dammam. And next to Bahrain - interesting.)

But in many ways I would argue that what's happening in Bahrain is significantly more important. As an absolute monarchy with an efficient police state, with a Sunni ruling elite and majority Shia population, Bahrain has important similarities with both Qatar and Kuwait, but crucially with eastern Saudi Arabia, especially around the oil production centres at Dahran / Dammam. 

Does this mean that the Saudi monarchy is under direct threat? No, not yet. But the really revolutionary point over the last six weeks in the Arab world seems to have been the people understanding that if enough protest together, the authoritarians cannot kill enough of them to suppress them - at which point the regime is finished in practical terms. So Bahrain as the first of the Arab monarchies to start shooting its citizens is going to prove an interesting litmus test - if people power works here, then where the dominoes fall next becomes very strategically interesting.

So, if they end up cancelling this year's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in November, then 2011 will have been a truly revolutionary year. And no, I don't see predictive causality in Formula 1. At least not yet.

Salman Taseer, a brave example to us all.

(Salman Taseer, murdered Governor of Punjab)

Tuesday's assassination of Salman Taseer, Governor of Pakistan's largest state, Punjab, was shocking not because political violence is unknown in Pakistan (sadly, rather the contrary), nor because of the commentary it provides on the state of the Pakistani State and the government of President Zadari (and it doesn't say much positive about that, either).

Instead, it was shocking because Governor Taseer was killed for defending the rights of an illiterate Christian woman accused of blasphemy, and his subsequent advocacy of repealing a repressive law. This is not a new campaign - see Prof. Akbhar Ahmed's WaPo piece from 2002, and political-religious violence in Pakistan has increased substantially since then.

It is worth remembering that the colonial-era blasphemy law was cynically revived by Zia ul-Haq when the military dictator was embracing Islamism to buttress the popular legitimacy of his illegal regime in the 1980s.

This happened in two stages; first, in 1982 section 295-B of the Pakistani penal code which made desecrating the Koran or making a derogatory remark about it punishable by life imprisonment, and then in 1984 section 295-C of the penal code made

"derogatory remarks, etc., in respect of the Holy Prophet ... either spoken or written, or by visible representation, or by any imputation, innuendo, or insinuation, directly or indirectly"

punishable with

"death, or imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to fine."

(It would presumably be a bit of a bugger to get a death sentence and a fine.)

In 1990, this was clarified by Pakistan's Federal Sharia Court, which ruled, "The penalty for contempt of the Holy Prophet ... is death and nothing else."

Ignoring the inherent contradictions of all blasphemy laws (if your God is omnipotent, why does she/he require a law to protect her/him from insults from unbelievers?), Salman Taseer stood up for those without rights and standing at grave cost to himself.

May this courageous man rest in peace.