Who forgot about Abyei? Oops.

("Lucy" a canal digger abandoned in South Sudan in 1983. What a strange testament to failed development.)

Just when it looked like there may be something akin to a grown-up divorce in Sudan (think Czechoslovakia in 1993), things seem to be getting ready to go horribly wrong in Abyei.

This is a potentially a big, war-sized, problem, as though the South voted overwhelmingly for independence in January - one of the few times in history 99% of the vote probably was in favour of the proposition -  Abyei as a border community did not as neither side appears to have been able to agree on who should get to vote. (The fact that Abyei sits atop a large oil repository is obviously immaterial to either side.....)

(I still love the idea of using your cow as a flagpole. Genius!)

So, what now? With independence for South Sudan scheduled for July 9th, the international community needs to hold its nerve and get the north's troops out. And if that means the credible threat of force, then so be it. (Just don't ask the UK, please - it'd be too embarrassing not to have anything to send. Oops.)

Watch this space!

99% vote for a Referendum. No, really!

 
In possibly a world first, it seems that a 99% majority in a referendum could be correct, rather than merely symbolic of massive fraud symptomatic of the worst authoritarian regimes. To no-one's surprise, it was the margin of South Sudan's vote for independence. I was a little surprised that 1% of South Sudanese voted for continued union with the North.

So, South Sudan will become the 198th State in the summer. Let's hope that this can be accomplished peacefully.

Can I get posted to Juba? Please?

197* + 1 = 198

Welcome South Sudan!

(In case it's unfamiliar, that's the new South Sudanese flag. Cow-as-flagpole optional.)

Enough frivolity.

Sunday, January 9th 2011 is virtually certain to mark the date of South Sudanese secession, with the major question remaining whether or not turnout reaches the required 60%; when Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (currently the subject of an ICC indictment over suspected genocide in Darfur) appears to accept the inevitable, it's a pretty clear steer that the game's up.

What really matters is what happens next up to formal independence and recognition.** In no particular order:

- Defining the border,

- Determining the status of the province of Abyei (which happens to cross the putative border and incidentally has lots of oil wells),

- Sharing oil and revenues and agreeing citizenship rights, both for northern Sudanese in South Sudan, and South Sudanese elsewhere in Sudan. (Oh, and protecting the rights of these minorities.)

- Developing one of the world's least developed places, blessed with oil, lots of guns and a 95% illiteracy rate inherited from the decades of war.

It's no mean challenge. But the prize of overcoming decades of war that has left more than 2 million dead is well worth it. And demonstrating that States can divide amicably and use this to overcome conflict is in my view critical to peace-building efforts in the next 20 years as centrifugal forces in some states lead to their breakup.

So, Happy Birthday, South Sudan.

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*197 Current States comprising 192 UN Members, 2 Non-members which have declared independence and enjoy some recognition (Vatican City, Kosovo), 1 Former-member yet to declare independence (Taiwan), 2 Observer members yet to achieve Statehood (Palestine, Western Sahara). To which we could potentially add Somaliland and Darfur in time for 200, though a reunified Korea would drop this back to 199.

** Always worth asking Robin Williams / Adrian Kronauer in Good Morning, Vietnam - "Great Britain recognized the island state of Singapore. How do you recognize an island? Do you go, exc-- Hey, wait. No, don't tell me. Wait, wait. Didn't we meet last year at the Feinman bar mitzvah? You look a lot like Hawaii. Didn't we meet last year at the Peninsula Club? No."